JK: Overhauling Counter-Terrorism to Contain Terror

JK - Jammu and Kashmir - is at a critical crossroads, grappling with an alarming resurgence of hybrid terrorism that demands a strategic overhaul. The recent tragedy in Reasi district, where a bus from the Shiv Khori cave to Katra lost control and plunged into a deep gorge, killing nine and injuring 41, reveals the escalating threat. This incident mirrors the 2017 terrorist attack on an Amarnath Yatra bus.

The current counter-terrorism scenario in JK is marked by heightened tensions and a surge in terrorist activities, exacerbated by the approaching elections. It is evident that the conventional approach to counter-terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir is inadequate. A comprehensive reconfiguration of the counter-terrorism strategy is imperative to effectively address this growing threat and send a decisive message to Pakistan’s ISI.

The Post-370 Picture

Following the abrogation of Article 370, the security landscape in JK has been managed on two fronts. Strategically, efforts have encompassed a broad spectrum of issues including de-radicalisation and socio-economic development. Tactically, operations have focused on monitoring infiltration and combating terrorist activities. Data indicates that the security situation has improved post-abrogation. Official statistics reveal that terrorist incidents, which peaked at 4,971 in 1992, dropped to 123 by November 30, 2022. 

Accor

JK - Jammu and Kashmir - is at a critical crossroads, grappling with an alarming resurgence of hybrid terrorism that demands a strategic overhaul. The recent tragedy in Reasi district, where a bus from the Shiv Khori cave to Katra lost control and plunged into a deep gorge, killing nine and injuring 41, reveals the escalating threat. This incident mirrors the 2017 terrorist attack on an Amarnath Yatra bus.

The current counter-terrorism scenario in JK is marked by heightened tensions and a surge in terrorist activities, exacerbated by the approaching elections. It is evident that the conventional approach to counter-terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir is inadequate. A comprehensive reconfiguration of the counter-terrorism strategy is imperative to effectively address this growing threat and send a decisive message to Pakistan’s ISI.

The Post-370 Picture

Following the abrogation of Article 370, the security landscape in JK has been managed on two fronts. Strategically, efforts have encompassed a broad spectrum of issues including de-radicalisation and socio-economic development. Tactically, operations have focused on monitoring infiltration and combating terrorist activities. Data indicates that the security situation has improved post-abrogation. Official statistics reveal that terrorist incidents, which peaked at 4,971 in 1992, dropped to 123 by November 30, 2022. 

According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal, Security Forces (SFs) have achieved a favourable kill ratio and maintained ground dominance. This sustained dominance is a key factor behind the relative peace in Jammu and Kashmir. However, despite New Delhi's counter-terrorism measures, there remains a critical need for a stronger and more consistent counter-terrorism framework. The current approach, which often treats counter-terror efforts as sporadic occurrences, must evolve into a more robust and strategic manoeuvring to address lingering vulnerabilities. 

The abrogation of Article 370 marked a significant turning point for JK, and achieving peace in the region is now more crucial than ever for effective governance and the successful implementation of development projects. Stability in Jammu and Kashmir is essential to ensure that government initiatives in education, healthcare, and rural development can be fully realised. Without a stable environment, these efforts cannot reach their intended impact, leaving the region vulnerable to exploitation by terrorists and their handlers. This instability provides a fertile ground for disruptive forces to operate, undermining progress and creating obstacles for the government's developmental agenda. 

The Pir Panjal Trap

The picturesque ranges of the Himalayas are now becoming a new battleground for terror groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM). Particularly, the offshoot of LeT, The Resistance Force (TRF), has been strategically exploiting this terrain to launch attacks on security forces, thereby sustaining the terror ecosystem in the valley. The difficult terrain of the Pir Panjal range allows these terrorists to engage our forces in prolonged shootouts, often resulting in casualties. Reports indicate that the Army lost 21 soldiers in the Pir Panjal range compared to seven in Kashmir last year. The police attribute this to the dense forests and multiple mountain ranges with natural caves that give terrorists a significant advantage.

The hybrid terror activities in the Pir Panjal range, from pinpoint strikes on civilians to targeted shootings at key locations, underscore the urgent need to reassess the counter-terrorism strategy in Jammu and Kashmir. The Rajouri encounter last year is a stark reminder of this necessity. TRF has managed to create local bases within mountain communities after security forces declared the Pir Panjal range a terror-free zone. This support from mountain communities has provided a tactical boost to terror activities, which is now a growing concern.

Despite the limited presence and operational resources of these terror groups, their ability to carry out high-intensity attacks remains constrained. However, even this "limited presence" poses a significant security challenge. Therefore, the government's campaign of "zero tolerance" towards terrorism must be expanded and made more robust to effectively counter these evolving threats.

The Reconfiguration

Ajay Sahni, a noted counter-terror expert observes, "There is a level of low-grade residual terrorism that can be sustained indefinitely, as long as external support is maintained." Sahni's insight is particularly relevant in the current scenario of hybrid residual terrorism. He highlights the effectiveness of "holding operations" by security forces—temporary actions aimed at preventing a worsening situation. However, critical questions arise about the longevity of these temporary measures, especially with elections approaching in the sensitive Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir amidst a surge in hybrid terror activities over the past year.

The holding operations, while yielding temporary results, must be reimagined to achieve three key objectives. It is crucial to strike deep into terror pockets, disrupting their core operations and infrastructure. Residual terrorism thrives on local support, and as Lt. General D.S. Hooda notes, "The key to defeating terrorists in the Pir Panjal lies in strengthening ties with mountain communities, not pumping in more troops." The recent Reasi attack, where a local guided terrorists to target a bus, underscores the active role of locals in facilitating terror activities. The approach must shift from temporary solutions to preemptive measures, with a strategy that acts with a proactive temperament.

Temporary solutions to this hybrid model of terror are inadequate; if terror proxies continue to breed silently, they may become self-sustainable and capable of large-scale strikes. Residual terrorism, especially in the run-up to elections in JK, must not be underestimated. A nuanced and proactive reconfiguration of tactics and strategies is important to effectively counter this evolving threat. The current strategy of executing holding operations needs to be revisited and transformed to ensure lasting peace and stability in the region.

Search and Destroy Strategy

The Search and Destroy strategy is one of the most utilised measures in jungle warfare and counterinsurgency terrains. This strategy draws inspiration from the Malayan Emergency of 1948, where British forces conducted numerous Search and Destroy (S&D) operations in the Malayan countryside, predominantly jungle, to flush out Malayan National Liberation Army (MNLA) guerrillas.

A similar approach was employed during the Vietnam War. The primary objective of this strategy is to insert troops into hostile territory, directing them to locate and attack enemy targets before swiftly withdrawing. The success of this strategy hinges on a robust intelligence base, which enables security forces to conduct targeted search and offensive operations.

Applying this strategy, with certain modifications, to specific areas of JK could yield significant results in eradicating residual terrorism, particularly in challenging terrains like the Pir Panjal Range. Here, the involvement of the mountain community could be crucial in erasing residual terror footprints. As elections approach in JK, it is imperative for New Delhi to send a strong message to Pakistan’s ISI that this is a new Kashmir. The nefarious strategies to revive terrorism and disrupt peaceful elections will be rendered ineffective.

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