India's Leadership Amid Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas Conflicts

India's leadership is emerging prominently amid the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict and the nearly nine-month-long Israel-Hamas war in West Asia, which have triggered turmoil and shifting alliances among global powers. Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran have formed a formidable axis challenging the United States' dominance. In response, Western powers under the NATO banner, led by the US, are striving to maintain their global supremacy, aiming to control international relations, economic ties, climate policies, and conflicts.

In this dynamic landscape, India’s leadership has shone brightly. The G-20 presidency and its crucial role in the ASEAN summit in Jakarta last year underscored India's growing influence. This not only positioned India favourably on the global stage but also put a spotlight on the country's approach to international affairs. The participation of global powers such as the US, UK, France, and Italy in these forums showed a shift towards a new world order, reflecting the spirit of eastward-shifting geopolitics amidst ongoing international conflicts.

Outward Manifestations

International wars often stem from underlying economic motivations, as seen in the imperialist policies of the UK, France, Germany, and other former colonial powers. These economic reasons are coupled with expansionist ambitions, such as in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and China's ongoing imperialist aggression in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. Exceptions to this trend include wars driven by fratricidal arrogance, racial bitterness, and terrorism, evident in the earlier Arab-Israel wars and the current Israel-Hamas conflict.

India's leadership is emerging prominently amid the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict and the nearly nine-month-long Israel-Hamas war in West Asia, which have triggered turmoil and shifting alliances among global powers. Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran have formed a formidable axis challenging the United States' dominance. In response, Western powers under the NATO banner, led by the US, are striving to maintain their global supremacy, aiming to control international relations, economic ties, climate policies, and conflicts.

In this dynamic landscape, India’s leadership has shone brightly. The G-20 presidency and its crucial role in the ASEAN summit in Jakarta last year underscored India's growing influence. This not only positioned India favourably on the global stage but also put a spotlight on the country's approach to international affairs. The participation of global powers such as the US, UK, France, and Italy in these forums showed a shift towards a new world order, reflecting the spirit of eastward-shifting geopolitics amidst ongoing international conflicts.

Outward Manifestations

International wars often stem from underlying economic motivations, as seen in the imperialist policies of the UK, France, Germany, and other former colonial powers. These economic reasons are coupled with expansionist ambitions, such as in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and China's ongoing imperialist aggression in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. Exceptions to this trend include wars driven by fratricidal arrogance, racial bitterness, and terrorism, evident in the earlier Arab-Israel wars and the current Israel-Hamas conflict.

China’s militaristic actions in the South China Sea and the Indo-Pacific poses huge challenge to both the global north and south, affecting nations like Japan, South Korea, and Australia by threatening the free passage of international trade. Additionally, China's persistent efforts to dominate Taiwan and North Korea’s missile tests, including nuclear ones, directed at South Korea and Japan, further escalate regional tensions.

The prolonged battle between Israel and Hamas has destabilised the entire West Asian region, with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi rebels in Yemen, backed by Iran, turning the conflict into an almost endless cultural annihilation. This situation raises the spectre of a broader global escalation. The recent missile exchange between Iran and Pakistan, though temporarily diffused by Turkey's mediation, could have ignited a larger conflict in South Asia, significantly impacting India and its regional partners.

These developments are not confined to South Asia or India. The emerging global scenario is deeply troubling and threatening, likely drawing in major powers such as the US, Russia, China, Iran, and NATO. This convergence of forces, driven by the pursuit of global hegemony and economic benefits, could precipitate major structural changes in international relations. 

Extreme Structural Changes

The global order is undergoing extreme structural changes, where previously insignificant players like North Korea, Iran, and Lebanon's Hezbollah, as well as Yemen's Houthi rebels attacking Red Sea shipping, have gained a decisive influence in the liberal-democratic international order that emerged after the Second World War. These actors, empowered by their notorious use of terror, have challenged the US's military supremacy and the roles of major powers like the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, and Australia.

Furthermore, the once-dominant Washington Consensus, characterised by globalisation and the free flow of capital, goods, services, and labour across borders, has been severely undermined. The resurgence of economic nationalism has led to a global economic recession and renewed great power conflicts, as seen in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars. These conflicts have the potential to ignite further turmoil worldwide, reflecting the deep and disruptive shifts in international relations.

Global Economic Recession

In the wake of the global economic recession triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic, nations worldwide have faced severe economic setbacks. The global north's efforts to revive their economies through restrictive trade policies, increased production, tightened immigration rules, and managed caps on carbon emissions, while increasing reliance on alternative energy sources, are expected to yield positive results. Meanwhile, the global south is striving to weather this challenging period through collective efforts among developing nations, enhancing trade amongst themselves, and producing diverse market goods with promising returns. Both blocs have articulated their strategies at the Davos Summit of the World Economic Forum 2024 in Switzerland and the 19th NAM Summit, followed by the G-77 Summit in Kampala, Uganda.

Despite their shared goals of economic revival and climate preservation, the reality has often diverged from these objectives. The increase in carbon emissions, leading to a rise in global temperatures, melting polar ice, and rising sea levels, poses a major threat to several islands. Additionally, environmental pollution has caused mysterious infections and ailments, adversely affecting flora and fauna, thereby disrupting the ecological balance. This environmental crisis is the most pressing challenge facing global humanity, as highlighted in the recent summits.

India's leadership, rooted in its rich religious and peaceful heritage, holds considerable global influence. As the progenitor of the doctrine of Nonalignment and a founding member of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), India can play a significant role in addressing the current global tensions and insecurities. By fostering collective efforts to address these crises, India's leadership can play a role in contributing to global peace and security.

India’s Projected Role

India's performance over the past two decades has been noteworthy, particularly in attracting substantial foreign investments to diversify and strengthen its infrastructure. India’s presidency of the G-20 provided a crucial opportunity to shape and lead future economic cooperation among member states. This leadership role is instrumental in consolidating the historically marginalised global South against the privileged North, which includes former colonial powers. Revitalising the spirit of South-South cooperation, with the added influence of the lone superpower and other major global powers, is essential, despite the imbalanced growth resulting from rapid globalisation.

Hosting prominent global leaders from across continents has undoubtedly boosted India’s national confidence, much like when former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi presided over the 1983 Seventh NAM Summit in New Delhi. The G-20 presidency has offered India a key global platform, especially against the backdrop of the declining influence of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) in recent decades. This role not only enhances India’s global standing but also reaffirms its capacity to lead international cooperation amidst complex geopolitical dynamics.

The ongoing international order is fraught with perilous developments, as the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars show no signs of abating. These conflicts, along with potential new flashpoints like Taiwan and South Korea, indicate deep shifts in global geopolitics towards the east. Despite Ukraine being nearly decimated by Russian forces, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy persists in resisting Russia's latest ceasefire proposals, buoyed by unwavering support from the US-led NATO powers. This steadfast opposition prolongs the conflict without resolution.

In this context, India's leadership must emphasise that peace and prosperity are irreplaceable for global survival and sustainability. This stance serves as a veiled yet potent rebuke to the war-mongering tendencies of Russia, NATO powers, and the factions involved in the Hamas-Israel war. These troubling developments may catalyse the emergence of a new world order, characterised by the use of brute force and a shift in global hegemony towards Russia and China, potentially ending the two-and-a-half-century-long Anglo-American dominance. This shift may also pave the way for an Asian resurgence in international relations, where India's leadership could play a crucial role.