Operation Rising Lion: Israel Escalates, World Braces for Fallout

Operation Rising Lion: Middle East on High Alert

​​On June 13, 2025, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a large-scale military campaign targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities and strategic infrastructure, escalating decades of covert conflict into open confrontation. The operation, involving over 200 fighter jets and Mossad-coordinated covert actions, significantly damaged the above-ground Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant at Natanz, impacted underground enrichment infrastructure, and struck Isfahan’s uranium conversion facility, while also destroying parts of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) missile complex. 

By June 19, the conflict intensified, with Iran launching retaliatory missile strikes on Israeli cities, including a deadly attack on Soroka Medical Center in Be’er Sheva, and Israel continued its  airstrikes on Tehran’s military and nuclear sites. These strikes, aimed at paralysing Iran’s nuclear capabilities, have pushed both nations to the brink of an all-out war, with President Donald Trump warning Iran of “brutal” consequences amid stalled nuclear talks, raising global fears of regional instability

Operation Rising Lion: Israel’s Counter-Proliferation Strategy

Operation Rising Lion exemplifies Israel’s strategy of disrupting and paralysing adversaries pursuing nuclear capabilities that threaten its security. The first indication of this strategy emerged during Operation Damocles in 1962, when Israel’s Mossad launched a covert campaign targeting German scientists involved in Egypt’s rocket program. The operation aimed to disrupt the rocket program through letter bombs, abdu

Operation Rising Lion: Middle East on High Alert

​​On June 13, 2025, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a large-scale military campaign targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities and strategic infrastructure, escalating decades of covert conflict into open confrontation. The operation, involving over 200 fighter jets and Mossad-coordinated covert actions, significantly damaged the above-ground Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant at Natanz, impacted underground enrichment infrastructure, and struck Isfahan’s uranium conversion facility, while also destroying parts of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) missile complex. 

By June 19, the conflict intensified, with Iran launching retaliatory missile strikes on Israeli cities, including a deadly attack on Soroka Medical Center in Be’er Sheva, and Israel continued its  airstrikes on Tehran’s military and nuclear sites. These strikes, aimed at paralysing Iran’s nuclear capabilities, have pushed both nations to the brink of an all-out war, with President Donald Trump warning Iran of “brutal” consequences amid stalled nuclear talks, raising global fears of regional instability

Operation Rising Lion: Israel’s Counter-Proliferation Strategy

Operation Rising Lion exemplifies Israel’s strategy of disrupting and paralysing adversaries pursuing nuclear capabilities that threaten its security. The first indication of this strategy emerged during Operation Damocles in 1962, when Israel’s Mossad launched a covert campaign targeting German scientists involved in Egypt’s rocket program. The operation aimed to disrupt the rocket program through letter bombs, abductions, and threats to scientists’ families. Although this operation became controversial when revealed, it successfully stalled Egypt’s ambitious rocket program. Later, this strategy was formalised as the Begin Doctrine in the 1970s, aiming to prevent Israel’s enemies from acquiring nuclear weapons through ‘preemptive strikes’ and counter-proliferation efforts.

The first such airstrike occurred in 1981, when Israel targeted Iraq’s Osirak nuclear reactor under Operation Opera. Decades later, in 2007, Israel executed another ‘preemptive strike’ on a Syrian nuclear site under Operation Orchard. These strikes achieved strategic paralysis, effectively incapacitating Syrian and Iraqi nuclear programs. However, Israel had to adjust its doctrine concerning Iran. Unlike its approach to degrading or paralysing the nuclear programs of Syria and Iraq, Israel has opted to delay and disrupt Iran’s nuclear program without employing overt offensive measures. The primary reason deterring Israel from pursuing a full-scale overt offensive against Iran’s nuclear program is the United States.

Operation Rising Lion: US Factor Between Israel and Iran

The reason compelling Israel to develop a measured strategic response to Iran’s nuclear program is simple: geo-economics and strategic considerations. Iran’s energy profile cannot be overlooked, as it is among the top global producers of oil and gas, possessing the world’s second-largest proven natural gas reserves and fourth-largest crude oil reserves. Iran has strong potential to influence oil prices; however, it is unlikely that Iran could sustain a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which would lead to a sharp increase in global oil prices above $100 per barrel. 

Iran has limited capacity to weaken the region economically but possesses robust proxy war capabilities, with forty years of asymmetrical warfare experience, which could severely destabilise the region. Its alleged support for the October 7, 2023, attacks on Israel is one key example. Therefore, the U.S. recognises that balancing and moderating conflict with Iran is essential to ensure regional stability in the Middle East, as a weakened Middle East presents economic and security challenges to U.S. geopolitical influence and its economy.

Pushing Towards Covert Offensives

Recognising the strategic risks and consequences of a direct conventional attack on Iran, the U.S. launched a notable operation, known as the first use of cyber weapons: Operation Olympic Games. This operation, initiated under the Bush administration in 2006, coincided with Israel’s alleged assassination of Iranian scientist Ardeshir Hosseinpour in 2007, who was involved in Iran’s nuclear program. 

Operation Olympic Games aimed to conduct sophisticated cyberattacks on Iranian nuclear sites; however, its broader objective, as many analysts argue, was to persuade Israel that non-conventional measures could more effectively disrupt Iran’s nuclear program than direct military action. This operation significantly influenced Israel’s security apparatus, leading to a series of assassinations of key Iranian scientists.

Nuclear Deals and U.S.

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA, or Iranian nuclear deal) aimed to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief. The broader objective of the U.S. was to ease regional tensions and foster deeper economic relationships in the Middle East, thereby strengthening its geopolitical influence in the region. Israel opposed the plan, believing that economic relief would enable Iran to upgrade its security systems and proxies to clandestinely develop nuclear weapons. Despite this opposition, the plan came into effect in January 2016. 

The JCPOA limited Israel’s opportunities to carry out covert offensives against Iran’s nuclear program, as evidenced by a significant decline in major covert operations from 2016 onward. In May 2018, under the Trump administration, the U.S. withdrew from the JCPOA, and a maximum pressure campaign began against Iran, which also enabled Israel to resume covert operations within two years of the withdrawal. Israel carried out its most complex covert operation by assassinating Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a senior Iranian nuclear scientist, in November 2020, preceded by alleged Israeli cyberattacks on Iran’s key nuclear sites in July 2020.

Nuclear Deal 2.0: U.S. Normalisation and Israel Tensions

As the Middle East spiraled into major conflict following the October 7, 2023, attacks on Israel, and after the fall of the Assad government in December 2024 alongside the threat of rising Islamic terrorism, a serious threat to regional stability emerged. Trump’s policy of applying maximum pressure against Iran began to shift in his second administration, driven by three key reasons: First, Trump sought to showcase a diplomatic win and the success of U.S. Middle East policy by achieving regional stability through a better plan than the JCPOA. Second, maintaining regional security was prioritised by preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons while pushing Iran to dismantle its nuclear program. Third, fostering economic normalisation in the region required reducing tensions with Iran.

However, Iran sought to limit rather than dismantle its nuclear program, which nearly resulted in a deadlock in the new arrangement negotiated over the past two months. Iran expected sanctions relief but was required to dismantle its program first; this condition prolonged nuclear talks and increased the risk of conflict, as Trump warned Iran in April 2025 that failure to reach a new deal would result in “bombing.”

This renegotiation process caused anxiety for Israel on two counts. First, the negotiation window was allowing Iran to buy time; by March 2025, Iran had achieved a great amount of uranium enrichment, and within months, it could potentially initiate a process to develop nuclear weapons. Second, Israel believed that if the deal reached a deadlock, Trump might accelerate negotiations and offer concessions to present the new deal as a diplomatic victory. According to reports, the Mossad chief faced challenges convincing U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East Steven Witkoff of the risks of renegotiating with Iran. These developments likely forced Israel to shift its operational scope toward Iran.

Operation Rising Lion: Shifting Operational Scope

Israel has now made it clear that through Operation Rising Lion, it no longer aims to merely disrupt Iran’s nuclear program but seeks to paralyse it, as it did with Iraq and Syria. The last airstrike on Iran’s nuclear sites occurred in October 2024 under Operation Days of Repentance, which damaged a nuclear research facility at Parchin. The operational objective was to degrade Iran’s strategic and military capabilities, but the scope was limited, as Parchin was not a significant nuclear site.

However, in Operation Rising Lion, Israel struck Iran’s key uranium enrichment facility at Natanz, previously targeted through covert measures. The key reasons that forced Israel to shift its operational scope and take strategic risks, pushing the region to the brink of instability, were: First, disrupting talks would counter Iran’s time-buying tactics. Second, forcing Iran to negotiate and surrender. Third, strategically paralysing Iran to weaken it to such an extent that it has no option but to concede to U.S. demands to dismantle its nuclear program.

While Israel has achieved some of its objectives, larger strategic successes depend on Iran abandoning its nuclear ambitions. Although regime change is one option to pressure Iran and end its nuclear pursuits, prioritising regional security and stability is essential. Iran’s nuclear ambitions risk further escalation, threatening regional stability. Increased U.S. involvement could signal the start of broader global consequences.