Syria Unrest and Haqqani Assassination: A Looming Shadow of Terror

Syria Crisis and Haqqani Assassination

The collapse of the Assad regime and the simultaneous ascendance of various jihadist factions have created a precarious geopolitical equation. This transition has heightened the risk of a resurgence in terrorism, threatening regional and global security. For India, this unfolding scenario amplifies concerns, as terror outfits based in Pakistan and those with ties to Al-Qaeda could seize this opportunity to regroup and reignite their activities.

A Multi-Layered Threat Landscape

The evolving terror threat reveals a three-pronged alarm system. First, the re-emergence of ISIS, particularly its Khorasan faction (ISIS-K), poses an imminent danger. ISIS has reasserted itself by executing high-profile attacks, such as the Moscow bombing earlier this year. With a robust extortion network facilitated by its intelligence arm, Emni, the group has demonstrated resilience in its funding and operations. Reports indicate that ISIS has carried out nearly 700 attacks in Syria alone since January, highlighting its enduring capacity for violence.

Second, the struggle for power among terror groups intensifies the instability in West Asia. The vacuum created by Assad's fall has sparked fierce competition among jihadist factions, further destabilising an already fragile region. This power tussle not only jeopardises local governance but also has far-reaching implications for global security interests.

Third, splinter factions of jihadist groups are leveraging the chaos to consolidate their influence. These factions exploit Syria’s weakened security apparatus

Syria Crisis and Haqqani Assassination

The collapse of the Assad regime and the simultaneous ascendance of various jihadist factions have created a precarious geopolitical equation. This transition has heightened the risk of a resurgence in terrorism, threatening regional and global security. For India, this unfolding scenario amplifies concerns, as terror outfits based in Pakistan and those with ties to Al-Qaeda could seize this opportunity to regroup and reignite their activities.

A Multi-Layered Threat Landscape

The evolving terror threat reveals a three-pronged alarm system. First, the re-emergence of ISIS, particularly its Khorasan faction (ISIS-K), poses an imminent danger. ISIS has reasserted itself by executing high-profile attacks, such as the Moscow bombing earlier this year. With a robust extortion network facilitated by its intelligence arm, Emni, the group has demonstrated resilience in its funding and operations. Reports indicate that ISIS has carried out nearly 700 attacks in Syria alone since January, highlighting its enduring capacity for violence.

Second, the struggle for power among terror groups intensifies the instability in West Asia. The vacuum created by Assad's fall has sparked fierce competition among jihadist factions, further destabilising an already fragile region. This power tussle not only jeopardises local governance but also has far-reaching implications for global security interests.

Third, splinter factions of jihadist groups are leveraging the chaos to consolidate their influence. These factions exploit Syria’s weakened security apparatus to establish regional strongholds, creating a ripple effect that threatens to destabilise neighbouring regions across Asia, Africa, and Europe.

The Terror Shadow on India

India faces a heightened terror threat in the aftermath of Syria’s upheaval, with Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), Indian Mujahideen (IM), ISIS-K, and Al-Qaeda units emerging as probable antagonists. These groups, leveraging the chaotic regional shifts, are poised to exploit the opportunity for resurgence. Among them, Indian Mujahideen, notorious for urban terror attacks, may attempt to re-establish itself. Notably, IM members were among the first Indian jihadists to join ISIS in Syria, as evidenced by a 2016 video in which they vowed to avenge the Babri Masjid demolition.

Jaish-e-Mohammad, too, has intensified its rhetoric. Recently, the outfit celebrated the perceived jihadist success in Syria, issuing a provocative message referencing the Babri Masjid and signaling intentions to escalate operations in India. This aligns with JeM chief Masood Azhar's public declarations hailing jihadists in Syria and threatening renewed terror campaigns in Kashmir. Azhar’s historical influence, from preaching jihadist ideology in Britain’s mosques to cementing ties with global terror networks, underscores the potential gravity of this threat. India has long sought his international designation as a terrorist, presenting evidence of his affiliations with Al-Qaeda and ISIS to the UNSC in 2019.

The Al-Qaeda Revival Strategy

While Al-Qaeda’s presence in South Asia has diminished, the group may find fresh opportunities in Syria to negotiate alliances. Figures such as Abu Julani, the HTS chief instrumental in Assad’s overthrow, could become pivotal in Al-Qaeda’s revival strategy. Concurrently, developments in Bangladesh raise alarms. Following Sheikh Hasina's ouster, radical elements have gained traction, exemplified by the release of Muhammad Jasimuddin Rahmani, leader of the Ansarullah Bangla Team, and the appointment of Nasimul Gani, linked to the banned Hizb-ut-Tahrir. This environment could catalyse Al-Qaeda’s regional operations.

Pakistan’s role in these dynamics is critical. With Assad’s departure, Pakistan may find renewed geopolitical leverage, especially given its historical ties to Al-Qaeda-affiliated groups like Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islam, responsible for past attacks in India. JeM’s evolution, including the formation of its offshoot Mujahid Tanzeem, highlights a deliberate strategy to amplify terror in Jammu and Kashmir. This renewed JeM-Al-Qaeda-Pakistan nexus, if left unchecked, threatens to trigger a wave of terror with far-reaching implications for India’s security landscape.

The Haqqanis and the Power Struggle in Afghanistan

The assassination of Khalil Haqqani, Afghanistan’s Refugee Minister and a key Taliban figure, reveals the persistent and evolving threat posed by ISIS-K, which has signaled its growing dominance in the region. The Haqqani network’s history is deeply entwined with the broader struggles of Afghanistan’s geopolitical and ideological landscape, particularly after the U.S. invasion in 2001 and the Taliban's return to power in 2021.

Once a powerful player, the Haqqani network’s influence within the Taliban’s second emirate has waned under Emir Hibatullah Akhundzada’s leadership. Tensions escalated as Akhundzada systematically marginalised the Haqqanis, depriving them of critical political control and undermining their strongholds in Afghanistan. Key disagreements, such as tax imposition in Haqqani-controlled areas and the treatment of women, highlighted ideological rifts, with the Haqqanis advocating a relatively moderate stance compared to the hardline Taliban.

Historically, the Haqqanis leveraged close ties with Pakistan’s ISI, receiving funds and operational support to maintain regional influence. Their collaboration extended to attacks against India, including the bombing of the Indian Embassy in Kabul. However, this once-strategic partnership has diminished, particularly as the Haqqanis lost their foothold in the Afghan political arena and faced mounting ideological and operational conflicts.

The Growing Threat of ISIS-K

As the Haqqani network’s influence erodes, ISIS-K has exploited the power vacuum to strengthen its position in Afghanistan. This expansion is facilitated by past understandings between the Haqqanis and ISIS-K, which brokered peace deals through Pakistan’s ISI. However, those agreements are now defunct as ISIS-K aggressively asserts its control, challenging the Taliban, TTP, and other factions.

The potential for Afghanistan to become a battleground for these rival factions—ISIS-K, TTP, and the Taliban—poses major risks for South Asia, particularly India. Unchecked, this dynamic could escalate into a full-blown terror crisis, destabilising the region further.

Meanwhile, global powers have launched countermeasures to curb the resurgence of jihadist groups. Israel’s ongoing Operation “Bashak Arrow” aims to dismantle Syria’s military infrastructure to prevent its capture by terror outfits, rapidly degrading the nation’s defense capabilities. Simultaneously, the U.S. is leveraging its alliance with HTS, a key jihadist group, to locate and target ISIS strongholds in Syria. Recent airstrikes have resulted in the elimination of 12 ISIS operatives, reflecting a proactive but piecemeal approach.

Despite these efforts, addressing the broader jihadist threat requires a complex interplay of military and political strategies. Without a comprehensive and coordinated global response, the resurgence of terror networks risks transforming Syria and Afghanistan into breeding grounds for further instability, endangering regional and global security.