U.S. Intelligence Anxiety Shows CIA’s Renewed Struggle for Dominance

After decades of the Cold War and the emergence of a new version of geopolitical tension, the U.S. intelligence appears to be revisiting their efforts to maintain their sphere of influence. This comes as new geopolitical frontiers open, with two wars already underway in the background. The CIA's recent activities in Africa, along with its growing interest in African politics and efforts to counter the Russia-China alliance, reveal a palpable sense of "intelligence anxiety" building up inside Langley. These developments are poised to have huge repercussions for the world.

The Intelligence Desperation: Cold War Days

Post-World War II, an ideological challenge to the West emerged in the form of communism spearheaded by the Soviet Union. The Soviet view of the global order was perceived as a threat to the U.S-led West, which was articulated in a famous speech by former U.S. President Harry S. Truman. Truman declared, "it must be the policy of the United States to support free peoples who are resisting attempted subjugation by armed minorities or by outside pressures." This March 12, 1947, speech is widely regarded by historians as marking the beginning of the Cold War.

Truman’s vision evolved into a cornerstone of U.S foreign policy, establishing the foundation for competition with the Soviets. According to the Truman Doctrine, the U.S. pledged to support democracies against authoritarian regimes. This policy was later refined to fit the Cold War context by the renowned U.S. diplomat George Kennan, who developed the containment strategy. This strategy advocated for containing the spread of communism in Eastern Europe, Africa, Asia, and Latin America.

The first encounter with the currents of the Cold War perhaps began with the Korean War of 1950, which created ripples in the U.S strategic and intelligence community. The primary objectives were to keep China at bay and support South Korea against the Soviet-backed North Korea. This situation underscored the need for a robust intelligence network. The CIA recognised that to make the containment policy successful, it needed to bolster the CIA's intelligence presence both offensively and defensively against the KGB.

Soon after, the CIA embarked on its most lethal and highly classified project, known as MK Ultra, preceded by a similar mind control program, Project Artichoke, in 1953. Through these projects, the CIA conducted illegal human experiments aimed at developing procedures and identifying drugs that could be used during interrogations to weaken individuals and force confessions through brainwashing and psychological torture. Although these projects were halted after a brief period due to various controversies, they revealed signs of the intelligence anxiety and desperation within the CIA.

However, the real struggle was yet to come. In 1957, the Soviet Union successfully tested its Sputnik satellite, marking its presence in space and becoming the first nation to send a living organism into space. This achievement further intensified the competition between the superpowers, showcasing the escalating tensions of the Cold War era.

The Soviet intelligence agency, the KGB, employed a strategy known as Active Measures, which aimed to conduct propaganda and psychological operations in the U.S. These active measures yielded significant results. One notable Soviet-designed propaganda campaign, known as Operation Denver, spread the false idea that HIV/AIDS was invented by the U.S. as a biological weapon. As part of this disinformation campaign, the KGB, through affiliated Soviet press and Soviet bloc intelligence agencies, disseminated publications that claimed to be independent investigative work. The goal was to divert attention away from the Soviets' own biological weapons program.

Similarly, the Soviets successfully sowed seeds of mistrust between the U.S and Britain by infiltrating the famous spy ring known as the Cambridge Five. This operation deepened the mistrust between the Western allies and showcased the effectiveness of the KGB's Active Measures in undermining the cohesion and trust among the Western powers.

PRICK Alliance: Pakistan, Russia, Iran and China

Internally, the CIA faced tough competition from the Soviet KGB. The CIA's failures in the Bay of Pigs Invasion and in attempts to assassinate Fidel Castro, as well as the CIA's inability to secure victory in the Vietnam War in 1968, highlighted significant shortcomings. The Tet Offensive, where communist forces of Vietnam backed by the USSR launched a massive assault against South Vietnam, stunned the United States. Perhaps the most significant failure came in 1979 when the CIA failed to predict or foresee the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. These Cold War-era challenges put the U.S. sphere of influence under severe threat, showcasing American desperation and frustration in maintaining its global standing.

Decades later, we witness a near reflection of those Cold War days. U.S's geopolitical influence is again under threat, this time from the growing closeness between Russia and China. Strategic experts point to a new alliance forming, informally known as PRICK—Pakistan, Russia, Iran and China. These geopolitical realignments, compounded by pressures from Israel and Ukraine, have created a renewed struggle for the CIA to maintain and advance U.S. strategic and political interests globally.

In the Middle East, the U.S. faces a trust deficit in intelligence and strategic cooperation with Israel's top security establishments, such as Mossad. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not aligning with U.S. directives, and reports suggest that Netanyahu has even instructed his security chiefs, including the Mossad Chief, to limit interactions with top U.S. intelligence officials. Meanwhile, in Ukraine, the situation is precarious, with Russia launching a new offensive following Putin's election victory. This development has led CIA Director William Burns to express concerns about Ukraine potentially losing the war by year's end.

These geopolitical and strategic challenges, coupled with inconsistent U.S. responses, reveal the possibility of an "intelligence dilemma" or anxiety within the CIA, prompting the agency to embark on a new phase of struggle.

The CIA's African Adventure

The recent arrest of alleged CIA operatives in Africa and accusations of the CIA's involvement in backing a coup in Congo highlight the renewed American focus on African geopolitics. The U.S has been increasingly engaging with African leaders, assessing their political leadership skills and personalities through the "Visit Piece," a detailed analysis more comprehensive than a simple career summary or agenda preview.

The concept of the Visit Piece originated during the presidency of John F. Kennedy in 1961, a time when the U.S was grappling with significant intelligence failures. Dissatisfied with the quality of intelligence briefings, Kennedy demanded more precise and analytical reports, leading to the creation of these detailed briefs.

Recently, President Joe Biden's meeting with African leaders, and his declaration of Kenya as a major ally amid China's growing influence in Africa, underscores the U.S's strong yet uneasy efforts to maintain its sphere of influence. These moves reflect America's intelligence anxiety and the complexities of navigating a global landscape filled with growing adversaries.

Implications for India

The increasing involvement of the U.S. in African geopolitics, as evidenced by the recent activities of the CIA has significant implications for India. Africa has long been a region of interest for India, given its strategic, economic, and historical ties with many African nations. As the U.S ramps up its influence to counter China, India finds itself in a complex geopolitical environment that requires careful navigation.

Firstly, India's own investments and diplomatic efforts in Africa may face heightened competition. India's trade with Africa has increased from US$ 68.5 billion in 2011-12 to US$ 90.5 billion in 2022-23. Indian investors have also significantly expanded their presence in the region. As one of the top five investors in Africa, India has made cumulative investments worth US$ 73.9 billion between 1996 and 2022. India is expected to increase this investment by 2030. The U.S.'s renewed focus could lead to a shift in alliances and economic partnerships, potentially drawing African nations closer to the American sphere of influence. 

Secondly, the informal PRICK partnership is expected to further corner India as the alliance between these dominant forces will sideline India's influence in the region. U.S’s emphasis on countering China's influence in Africa aligns with India's strategic interests, but it also brings new dynamics to the region. India's strategic partnership with the U.S. could be leveraged to enhance its own influence in Africa. 

Lastly, the growing geopolitical competition in Africa highlights the importance of India's soft power and historical ties with African nations. India's approach of offering educational opportunities, healthcare assistance, and development aid has been well-received in many African countries. Strengthening these aspects of its foreign policy, while also adapting to the changing geopolitical landscape, will be crucial for India to sustain and expand its influence in Africa amidst the heightened involvement of countries like the U.S. and China in the region.

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