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Heatwave: This Is How Dangerous Extreme Heat Is to Humans

Heatwave: The Silent Killer of Thousands Each Year, and It's Only Going to Get Worse. The Alarming Headlines from India Grappling with an Extreme Heatwave in Recent Days Serve as a Stark Warning.

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Heatwave | How much heat is too much? | James Goldie, 360info | Credits CC BY 4.0

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Heatwave: The Silent Killer

Heat is the silent killer of thousands each year and is only going to get worse.

The headlines coming out of India as it grappled with an extreme heatwave the past few days have been alarming.

A weather station in Delhi recorded a temperature of 52.9 degrees Celsius, which, if confirmed, would be a national record. Animals have died, students have fainted at schools and drinking water taps have dried up. A labourer reportedly died of heatstroke on Thursday.

It's not only India. Mexico is in the grip of a heatwave that has killed at least 48 people since March. The "heat dome" hovering over the central American nation is set to move to the United States in coming days.

Heat is the silent killer that is responsible for more deaths than any other natural disaster. Several severe European heatwave in recent decades, including last summer, have claimed tens of thousands of excess deaths.

Death tolls in developing countries are not properly counted and probably much larger.

But worse is coming and we need to prepare for it.

The average surface temperature on Earth is now at its highest level since records began and probably before the last ice age.

Recent heatwave show clear fingerprints of global warming, more so than any other climate change impact such as flood or drought. And global warming will continue at least until we reach net zero.

There is a fundamental limit to the body's coping ability: it is a fixed goalpost.

Research in 2010 demonstrated that a 'wet-bulb' temperature of 35 degrees Celsius or higher would make it impossible for humans to exhaust metabolic heat, due to our fixed core body temperature.

It proposed this was an effective survivability limit. 

The wet-bulb temperature measures the ability to cool by evaporation; it equals normal temperature if relative humidity is 100 percent, and otherwise is lower. 35C is extreme — most places on Earth never experience wet bulbs above 30C. 

But enough global warming could push heatwave in many areas past 35C. This upended the widely held assumption at the time that humans could adapt to any amount of increased heat, i.e., that the goalposts would move. This goalpost will not.

Wet-bulb temperature is used by meteorologists and climatologists to quantify heat stress. It is a combination of heat and humidity: a high wet bulb can occur in humid places at lower temperatrues, as well as in dry places at extremely high temperatures.

New studies are beginning to chart out the road to 35C.

One study in the US last year found that young, healthy subjects exposed to very hot conditions started to enter hyperthermia (inability to regulate core body temperature) well below 35C wet bulb, closer to 32C or less.

This is an important reminder that 35C was a theoretical upper limit, not a practical one.

On the other hand they would undoubtedly have found a higher tolerance had they done the study in India or Brazil, because physiology does adjust to heat over time (up to a point). 

The UK has a long way to go before reaching 32C and could acclimatise for a while. Wet-bulb temperatures above 32C appear only very rarely today in coastal areas of the Middle East and for very short periods, but these will gradually spread as warming continues.

The heat will force us to change how we live, for example shifting outdoor summertime activities to nigh

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