NDA on Shaky Ground: Will the Government Complete its Term?

NDA Government Struggles with Coalition Dynamics and Policy Paralysis

It has been more than 100 days since the BJP returned to power in its new avatar to head the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition government. This painful transition from a muscular single-party government that enjoyed a full majority to one where it has to lean on two dodgy partners to stay afloat is impacting its authority. The result is stark—it’s a government that is displaying the same symptoms of policy paralysis as the government of Manmohan Singh did in its last days. No one is convinced by all the thousands of crores that PM Modi keeps announcing for all kinds of projects. Either they may not come up, or when they indeed do, they may just come apart due to the shoddiness of execution, as has happened in the case of bridges, roads, and even statues. In other words, the NDA government has become a subject of mirth and ridicule in an irreverent social media.

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For Narendra Modi, it is an unusual experience to run a coalition government where he has to conduct business with two entities that have their own views about the BJP and its ideological mothership, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). Both allies of the BJP do not like the party. They have been wary of the Modi government’s liberal use of enforcement agencies and the threat of putting their opponents in jail. 

Though Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh, Chandrababu Naidu, was jailed by the state government on charges of corruption, informed sources claim that the truth lies elsewhere. Due to its clever machination, the BJP secured the support of 25 seats from Andhra Pradesh, helping it achieve a majority in parliament. It is another matter that the BJP is back to what it does best—cannibalising its allies and adding vulnerable MPs to beef up its numbers in both houses of parliament. As usual, it has used enforcement agencies to win critical support, but this time it is facing challenges both within its own party and outside. The BJP is resisting the idea of appointing a convenor who could maintain ethical restraint on them when they try to poach their allies. The result of this inhibition to steal MPs from its allies is giving freedom to the INDIA alliance to imagine increasing their numbers and predict the fall of the NDA government. Not easy, but it means that the NDA will remain shaky during its term.

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Though the NDA alliance government is giving the impression of business as usual, there are manifest vulnerabilities in their operations. Sources within the government claim that the bureaucracy has sensed weaknesses in this administration and is resisting orders from the Modi government that it disagrees with. This suggests that bureaucrats are giving more importance to predictions of the government’s fall than to assurances of its stability or the Prime Minister’s claim that it will last a full term. 

Not too long ago, a statement by Bihar leader Lalu Prasad Yadav, where he claimed that the NDA government had a short life, was a major topic of conversation in the corridors of the capital’s Shastri Bhawan. Similarly, an astrologer who has been predicting bad times for the Modi government on YouTube is much sought after in opposition circles. In fact, his weekly program has catapulted his channel to the top spot among YouTubers. To give a sense of his popularity, this channel gets more views than well-known ones like those of Dhruv Rathi and Ravish Kumar.

Even foreign powers are keeping a close watch on the NDA government, speculating on how long it will last. There is a belief that the US elections will have an impact on the fortunes of the NDA government. Well-informed sources claim that if Kamala Harris wins the US elections, it could make the Modi government somewhat vulnerable.

Besides the external environment, what is also causing grave anxiety in the BJP leadership are reports from Uttar Pradesh—considered its bastion. The impression of invincibility surrounding Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has been shattered by the outcome of the June 4 parliamentary results. If it had not been for the indirect support provided by the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) to the BJP, the party would have been reduced to barely 14-15 seats. It eventually managed to win 33 seats, but it also witnessed the extraordinary spectacle of Prime Minister Modi desperately trying to secure his seat. It has been more than three months since the NDA returned to power, yet the setback has not significantly shaken the BJP's top leadership.

There are reports that the central leadership is holding CM Yogi Adityanath responsible for the BJP's losses in the state. However, that’s only partially true. During numerous visits to the state, this writer observed a seething rage among the youth about unemployment and how they had been left to fend for themselves. In Varanasi, a different kind of anger was directed at the PM and the party. Yogi was not even mentioned in the diatribes of local people. Modi was accused of destroying the soul of the city by building useless flyovers and demolishing lanes and by-lanes that distanced the local people from the holy river Ganges.

Some of the blame for the stasis that the BJP has been experiencing should also be attributed to the Chief Minister. His policy of using bulldozers to destroy the homes of alleged offenders may be appreciated by some of his vocal supporters, but these actions are unlikely to endear him to the masses. Yogi continues to pursue a brand of politics that is exclusionary, yet the BJP top brass lacks the courage to move him. All the reports about his deputy raising the banner of revolt against him turned out to be mere rumours.

Uncertain of the outcome of the 10 by-polls, the BJP government is trying to delay them as much as possible. Ideally, they should have taken place alongside the Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir elections, but they have been postponed. Now, they might coincide with the Maharashtra polls in November.

What happens if the BJP loses Maharashtra and Jharkhand after finishing second in Haryana, as pollsters expect? Not much, really, as the Congress party does not seem to be in a great hurry to take over, and Rahul Gandhi seems more focused on demolishing the BJP’s image than on coming to power. One wonders whether this is a good strategy.