Black September: Israel's Triumph and the Decline of Armed Struggle

Black September: Israel's Covert Operations and the Fight Against Hamas

On October 16, in a decisive blow to Hamas, Israel eliminated one of its most notorious figures, Yahya Sinwar, a hardline leader who rose to power following the death of former Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in what was widely believed to be a covert Mossad operation. Sinwar's death, after years of spearheading brutal attacks on Israel, marks a massive victory for Israeli forces. However, this strike goes beyond the elimination of one man—it has left Hamas on the brink of an existential crisis.

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After more than a year of devastating attacks on Israeli civilians, the death of Yahya Sinwar marks a critical moment in Israel’s fight against Hamas. Sinwar, a militant leader who took the reins after the assassination of former Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in an alleged Mossad operation, played a crucial role in orchestrating these massacres. His elimination has sent shockwaves through Hamas, placing the organisation at the precipice of collapse. Yet, this is not the first time Israel has pushed a terror group to the brink. The demise of the organisation offers a historical parallel, as it, too, was effectively dismantled following relentless strikes by Israel’s Mossad.

Black September: Israel's Covert Operations and the Fight Against Hamas

On October 16, in a decisive blow to Hamas, Israel eliminated one of its most notorious figures, Yahya Sinwar, a hardline leader who rose to power following the death of former Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in what was widely believed to be a covert Mossad operation. Sinwar's death, after years of spearheading brutal attacks on Israel, marks a massive victory for Israeli forces. However, this strike goes beyond the elimination of one man—it has left Hamas on the brink of an existential crisis.

We Have a Request for You: Keep Our Journalism Alive
We are a small, dedicated team at The Probe, committed to in-depth, slow journalism that dives deeper than daily headlines. We can't sustain our vital work without your support. Please consider contributing to our social impact projects: Support Us or Become a Member of The Probe. Even your smallest support will help us keep our journalism alive.

After more than a year of devastating attacks on Israeli civilians, the death of Yahya Sinwar marks a critical moment in Israel’s fight against Hamas. Sinwar, a militant leader who took the reins after the assassination of former Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in an alleged Mossad operation, played a crucial role in orchestrating these massacres. His elimination has sent shockwaves through Hamas, placing the organisation at the precipice of collapse. Yet, this is not the first time Israel has pushed a terror group to the brink. The demise of the organisation offers a historical parallel, as it, too, was effectively dismantled following relentless strikes by Israel’s Mossad.

Black September was born out of the violent suppression of Palestinian fighters by Jordanian forces, who feared a coup attempt. Thousands of Palestinian fighters were killed, and those who survived were expelled, giving rise to this clandestine group. While operating under the umbrella of Fatah, the organisation carried out highly covert operations, keeping its numbers small and its cells secretive. As the U.S. State Department observed, the group worked closely with Fatah, but Fatah later distanced itself from armed struggle, embracing negotiation as the primary path to deal with Israel.

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In its early years, it aimed to bolster Fatah’s military and political influence. Unlike Hamas, which conducts highly visible, large-scale attacks, Black September’s operations were often more clandestine, employing a sophisticated cell structure. American journalist John K. Cooley, an expert on Islamist terrorism, noted that the group’s members operated in small, isolated units, each unaware of the others’ activities. This compartmentalised structure allowed the organisation to maintain secrecy and avoid detection, even in the face of Israeli counterterrorism efforts.

Covert Operations and Israel’s Nightmares

One of their most infamous acts was the Munich Massacre during the 1972 Olympics, but its terror campaign extended far beyond that. In the same year, the group sent dozens of letter bombs to Israeli diplomatic posts worldwide, killing Israeli agricultural counselor Ami Shachori in Britain. These covert actions, coupled with the group’s deep ties to Palestinian nationalism and its fierce anti-Zionist stance, posed an ongoing threat to Israel, leaving the country on high alert throughout the early 1970s.

Israel’s eventual success in dismantling Black September offers a potent reminder of its ability to neutralise even the most elusive terror groups.

In the wake of the Munich Massacre, Israel's Mossad embarked on a long-term covert operation aimed at dismantling Black September, systematically targeting its key members. This relentless campaign ultimately precipitated an existential crisis for the organisation. While ideological rifts with Fatah certainly played a role in questioning Black September’s legitimacy, it was Mossad's operations that severely hampered its operational capabilities.

On the ideological front, the Arab sentiment against Zionism remains pertinent; however, it has gradually diminished from the fervour it enjoyed during the 1960s, '70s, and early 2000s. The dissolution of Black September reveals three potential scenarios: First, the short-lived sustainability of radical ideologies against Israel; Second, the continued political relevance of anti-Zionist ideologies in galvanising Arab sentiment in the Middle East; Third, the limited success of armed struggle as a means of resistance.

Fundamentalists vs. Moderates: Shifting Dynamics with Israel

Following the decline of armed resistance by Fatah in the late 1970s to the late 1980s, the organisation pivoted towards a more moderate approach after the Oslo Accords, recognising Israel and renouncing armed struggle. In the earlier years, under Yasser Arafat's leadership, Fatah had launched approximately 2,000 guerrilla attacks against Israel. However, the assassination of Arafat and other key Fatah figures, such as Khalil Al-Wazir in 1988, left the group weakened and vulnerable. Facing strong retaliation from Jordan and Lebanon, along with Mossad's relentless pursuit, Fatah had no choice but to reform its strategy, leading to negotiations with Israel in the 1990s. Nevertheless, Fatah faced a major setback in the 2006 elections when Hamas emerged victorious, leading to a loss of control over the Gaza Strip and the rise of Hamas. The decline of Black September and Fatah's strategic shift reveals the limited success of armed struggle against Israel.

Ideas Cannot Be Killed, but They Can Be Paralyzed: A Dead End for Proxies?

The saying “You can’t kill an idea” holds some truth, yet it’s equally valid to say that ideas can exist in a paralysed state. There’s a crucial distinction between relevance and reality; while certain ideologies may remain relevant, turning them into actionable reality poses a significant challenge. The closure of Fatah's armed struggle and the downfall of Black September serve as key historical events demonstrating that the radical notion of placing Israel in an existential crisis has largely failed, with only a few notable successes. The anti-Zionist narrative championed by various proxies appears to be faltering, despite Iran’s efforts to sustain this ideology and use it to build proxy forces aimed at armed struggle—a strategy that lacks sustainability.

Just a year ago, the consensus was that proxy wars would intensify; however, the current reality suggests otherwise, with proxies reaching a dead end and confronted with two choices: abandon armed struggle or seek reconciliation with Israel. This state of paralysis among resistance factions may be prompting Hamas to explore dialogue with Fatah for Palestinian unity, as evidenced by a recent meeting in Cairo.

Nonetheless, a counterargument surfaces with the unexpected rise of Fatah’s armed faction, Tanzim, in 1995, which gained notoriety during the Second Intifada through suicide bombings and attacks against Israel. Yet, much like its predecessors, Tanzim's operations were short-lived; after the assassination of its senior commander, Abayat Hussein, in November 2000, and the subsequent arrest of its leader, Jamal Abu Lel, the group lost its capabilities.

The current paralysis of Hamas and Hezbollah suggests that history may indeed be repeating itself, potentially leading these long-standing proxies toward existential crises similar to those faced by Black September and Fatah in the past.