Mossad's Strategic Manoeuvres in the Middle East

Mossad's Covert Operations and Geopolitical Gambles

Two years after the U.S. successfully targeted the Al-Qaeda chief in Afghanistan, Israel allegedly carried out a covert operation in Iran, resulting in the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, a key Hamas leader. The operation was marked by its mysterious execution and the sophisticated nature of the bomb blast. However, intelligence work in such complex environments often leads to a zero-sum game, where conflicts can either spiral out of control or be strategically contained to minimise escalation. Spies operate in a world of high stakes, where actions can lead to either spectacular successes or catastrophic consequences.

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Covert Games on the Edge of War

During the Iran-Iraq war, one of the longest conflicts in the Middle East, covert operations played a crucial role behind the scenes. Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, made the strategic decision to support Iran, despite it being a sworn enemy, in order to counterbalance Iraq under Saddam Hussein. This move was part of Israel’s periphery doctrine, a policy aimed at forging ties with non-Arab nations to counterbalance Arab and other adversarial nations.

Israel clandestinely ran a covert program supplying weapons to Iran, with permission from the United States to sell unsophisticated arms. However, Mossad deviated from this agreement, secretly supplying sophisticated American-made weapons to Iran instead. This was done to gain Iran’s trust and secure intelligence on Iraq’s main nuclear reactor, which was later destroyed in Israel’s famous Operation Opera.

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The covert arms business with Iran continued smoothly until 1982, when the location of Israel’s front company in the U.S. and its role in purchasing sophisticated weapons for resale to Iran was leaked by the New York Times. In response, Israel shut down its operations in the U.S. and resumed them in London by 1983. Despite the U.S. launching Operation Staunch, a campaign aimed at prohibiting arms sales to Iran, American intelligence agencies turned a blind eye to Israel’s violation of the secret agreement. This espionage episode highlighted three critical points: first, Israel risked jeopardising its trust with the U.S.; second, it armed its enemy with advanced weaponry; and third, its strike on Iraq’s nuclear reactor during an ongoing war could have escalated the conflict further. Consequently, Iran retaliated with its own strikes on Iraqi nuclear reactors in Operation Scorch Sword.

Throughout this period of chaos, the U.S. intelligence community remained in the shadows. The strategic gamble taken by Israel, tempered with careful calculation, could have easily backfired, turning the course of the war against them. While Israel’s risks yielded favourable outcomes, such high-stakes gambles in the realm of geopolitics do not always produce the desired results.

Mossad’s Missteps and Misjudgments

Mossad’s assessment of Saddam Hussein was notably flawed, as argued by General Brom, a Senior Research Associate at Tel Aviv University. Brom contends that Mossad’s tendency to prepare for worst-case scenarios often leads to erroneous conclusions. Israel’s miscalculation regarding Hussein is a prime example, where the nation was convinced that Saddam would deploy non-conventional weapons against Israel, ignoring the reality that he was struggling for survival. This faulty assessment, alongside those by the British MI6 and the American CIA, exacerbated regional insecurity in the early 2000s and contributed to the 2003 invasion of Iraq, which destabilised the region and fueled the rise of terror groups.

Similarly, Mossad’s misjudgment during the Yom Kippur War could have had dire consequences for Israel, if not for a timely intelligence input that redirected the country’s focus. However, at times, Mossad’s risky strategies have proven to be the only viable option, as evidenced by the recent assassination of a Hamas leader.

Israel’s High-Stakes Operations

In a span of two days, Israel targeted two high-value individuals, one of which is confirmed to involve Israeli forces while the other remains under suspicion. Israel launched strikes in Lebanon, killing a top Hezbollah commander, and carried out a sophisticated and mysterious attack that eliminated the Hamas chief in Iran. The bomb, reportedly planted in an IRGC-protected guesthouse two months earlier, was detonated using AI technology after the Hamas leader entered the room. While Israel has remained silent on the operation, Iran has accused Israel’s intelligence agency of orchestrating the attack. Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas leader, had been a marked man, with Israel labelling him a “dead man walking” and systematically targeting his family members in recent months.

For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, this assassination has provided a much-needed respite amid mounting pressure, with the ongoing conflict and stalled hostage negotiations. The strike is also viewed as Israel’s retaliation for the attacks of October 7 last year. However, the real question remains: what tangible benefit will this assassination bring to Israel? Experts suggest that Haniyeh’s removal may facilitate more effective negotiations and improve the prospects of reaching a deal. Yet, there are alternative perspectives that challenge this optimistic view, highlighting the complexities and uncertainties of such high-stakes operations.

Iran’s Possible False Flag Operation

There is growing speculation that Iran could be behind the assassination of Hamas Chief Ismail Haniyeh, driven by two key factors. First, Haniyeh had reportedly become more moderate towards the hostage deal, a stance that did not sit well with Iran’s hardliners and the top brass of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The weakened state of Hamas likely contributed to this shift. Second, Yahya Sinwar, Hamas's second-in-command and a more aggressive figure in negotiations and on the battlefield, could be seen as a preferable leader by Iran. By eliminating Haniyeh and positioning Sinwar to take over, Iran might aim to revive Hamas’s militant activities and enhance its capability for strong retaliation against Israel. Thus, Iran may have orchestrated a false flag operation, knowing that Israel would be blamed for the assassination, thereby escalating tensions and complicating the hostage deal, putting Israel under intense pressure to respond.

Geopolitical Ramifications and Iran’s Strategic Options

As Israel remains silent on the killing of Haniyeh, it is bracing for potential retaliation from Iran. The question now is how Iran will respond—whether through targeted airstrikes or a barrage of rockets on key civilian and strategic targets, or perhaps through a more complex, three-pronged attack utilising its allies in the region: Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. The immediate effect of any retaliation would likely be the postponement of the hostage deal, further widening the conflict and drawing the U.S. back into the region to deter further escalation. Such a scenario would exacerbate the already fragile security situation in West Asia.

While the prolongation of this conflict is not in the broader interest of the region, it does offer Iran a strategic opportunity to exert pressure on the U.S.-Israel axis, potentially forcing negotiations on their terms. However, Mossad's involvement in the region's espionage landscape means that Israel may once again resort to high-stakes gambles to weaken Iran’s proxy war capabilities, both politically and militarily. Meanwhile, Mossad's actions could prompt the CIA to increase its deterrence efforts to maintain regional security in West Asia, highlighting the delicate balance of power in this volatile environment.

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