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Lebanon Pager Blasts: Advanced Sabotage, The New Middle East Playbook

Lebanon Pager Blasts: The recent attacks represent a sophisticated shift in covert operations. This new strategy could redefine how conflicts are managed in the region.

By Srijan Sharma
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Lebanon Pager Blasts

Lebanon Pager Blasts | Photo courtesy: Mehr News Agency (Left), DD India (Right)

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Lebanon Pager Blasts: A Game-Changer in Middle East Espionage

Months after the assassination of Hamas Chief, another act reminiscent of a high-stakes espionage thriller is unravelling in the Middle East. This time, Lebanon is at the centre of attention, where a meticulously coordinated explosion has wreaked havoc. The blasts, triggered by multiple detonated pagers, left thousands injured and claimed the lives of at least eleven people. Unlike the typical terror attacks the region is accustomed to, this was a carefully engineered strike aimed at crippling Hezbollah’s offensive potential. While Israel is the predictable suspect given its longstanding tensions with Hezbollah, this incident signals something far more complex than an ordinary covert operation.

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The Attack 

According to a report by The New York Times, the attack in Lebanon may have involved a highly sophisticated form of sabotage. It is alleged that Israel planted explosive material within a batch of Taiwanese-manufactured pagers that had been imported into Lebanon. The explosives, small amounts between one to two ounces, were placed next to the batteries of each pager, according to officials. A remotely controlled switch was embedded, allowing the explosives to be detonated at will. 

At precisely 3:30 p.m., the pagers, distributed widely among Hezbollah members, received what appeared to be a standard communication from the group’s leadership. However, instead of delivering instructions, the message triggered the explosive devices. Lebanon’s health minister confirmed that at least 11 people were killed, with more than 2,700 injured, as reported by The New York Times. The intricate plot didn’t stop there. Reports suggest that over 3,000 pagers were ordered from Taiwan’s Gold Apollo company, with Hezbollah distributing them to members across Lebanon, and some even reaching Hezbollah’s allies in Iran and Syria.

Following the initial blast, a second wave of explosions occurred the next day, targeting other electronic devices. At least fourteen people were killed and more than 450 wounded as radios and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah fighters were similarly rigged to detonate. This two-pronged attack signals not just a targeted offensive but a high-level operation aimed at dismantling Hezbollah’s operational structure.

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A Strategic Shift In Rules of Engagement 

While this may appear as just another covert operation from Mossad’s long-playbook of espionage, there are signs that this incident marks a subtle strategic shift in Israel's approach to its conflict with Hezbollah and the broader Axis of Resistance. Over the past few months, Israel has intensified its military engagement, supplementing conventional strikes with covert operations, such as the assassination of Hamas's chief. This evolving strategy can be assessed through two lenses: escalation and deterrence.

First, escalation. Unlike in previous conflicts where Israel’s large-scale counteroffensives risked immediate retaliation and the potential for regional escalation, this operation reflects a desire for controlled, calculated action. By employing covert tactics, Israel can manage the pace and intensity of the conflict, maintaining pressure on its adversaries without provoking an all-out response. The recent pager bombings serve as a clear demonstration of Israel's capacity to strike deep into Hezbollah's ranks while avoiding the sort of heavy-handed military response that would typically invite broader retaliation.

Second, deterrence. Historically, Israel's deterrence efforts have been direct, relying on conventional military strength to counter threats. This approach, however, often complicated the Middle Eastern landscape, as massive airstrikes or ground operations would lead to unintended consequences. But the latest string of covert operations suggests a more nuanced deterrence strategy. Israel, if reports are accurate, is now executing complex intelligence-based operations with precision, weakening key elements of Hezbollah and Hamas without resorting to large-scale war efforts. This shift is emblematic of Mossad’s willingness to take significant risks in order to neutralise threats and buy time for diplomatic solutions or internal power plays.

Israel’s evolving military posture aligns with the principles of the "indirect approach" famously advocated by military theorist Liddell Hart. His strategy suggests that to defeat the enemy, one must first disrupt their equilibrium before launching a major offensive. Israel's sabotage of Hezbollah’s communication systems, crippling their operational capabilities, mirrors this principle. By destabilising their ability to function, Israel creates an opportunity to escalate its own war efforts without facing immediate backlash. As Sun Tzu noted, "In all fighting, the direct method may be used for joining battle, but indirect methods will be needed to secure victory." Israel, in this case, has already disrupted Hezbollah’s balance and may now look to exploit this weakness to gain a strategic advantage in the conflict.

Israel's Old Yet New Playbook of War 

Israel, until now, has largely relied on a direct approach to conflict, with minimal use of covert operations, typically confined to targeted strikes. However, recent events mark a shift towards large-scale sabotage operations, executed in a short time frame. First came the alleged detonation of pagers, followed by the explosions of walkie-talkies. These coordinated attacks signify a new phase in Israel’s strategy. As noted by the CIA in its intelligence assessments, high-risk sabotage operations are designed to harass and demoralise the enemy’s administrative and security apparatus. In this instance, Israel seems to be following a similar playbook, employing the "indirect approach" by focusing on disrupti

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