Iran-Israel Conflict: A Countdown to Catastrophe?

Iran-Israel Conflict: A Dangerous Crossroads for the Region

Following the alleged involvement in the Lebanon pager blast, which specifically targeted Hezbollah's upper echelons, Israel has initiated an extensive air campaign against the group, leading to the reported assassination of Hezbollah Chief Hassan Nasrallah in an operation codenamed “New Order.” This military strategy, characterised by attrition and limited ground operations, echoes the tactics employed during the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war. Yet, the dynamics of Israel's multi-front conflict have evolved to a point where a new chapter in the power struggles of the Middle East appears to be unfolding.

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Israel’s Operation New Order

In the wake of the Iran-Israel conflict and the series of targeted strikes against high-profile figures, including the chiefs of Hamas and Hezbollah, and a ground operation in Lebanon dubbed “Northern Arrows,” Israel finds itself embroiled in intricate strategic calculations that have escalated the Middle East's security risks to alarming levels. These precarious maneuvers, however, yield limited benefits for Israel.

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Iran-Israel Conflict: A Dangerous Crossroads for the Region

Following the alleged involvement in the Lebanon pager blast, which specifically targeted Hezbollah's upper echelons, Israel has initiated an extensive air campaign against the group, leading to the reported assassination of Hezbollah Chief Hassan Nasrallah in an operation codenamed “New Order.” This military strategy, characterised by attrition and limited ground operations, echoes the tactics employed during the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war. Yet, the dynamics of Israel's multi-front conflict have evolved to a point where a new chapter in the power struggles of the Middle East appears to be unfolding.

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We are a small, dedicated team at The Probe, committed to in-depth, slow journalism that dives deeper than daily headlines. We can't sustain our vital work without your support. Please consider contributing to our social impact projects: Support Us or Become a Member of The Probe. Even your smallest support will help us keep our journalism alive.

Israel’s Operation New Order

In the wake of the Iran-Israel conflict and the series of targeted strikes against high-profile figures, including the chiefs of Hamas and Hezbollah, and a ground operation in Lebanon dubbed “Northern Arrows,” Israel finds itself embroiled in intricate strategic calculations that have escalated the Middle East's security risks to alarming levels. These precarious maneuvers, however, yield limited benefits for Israel.

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Firstly, the primary objective is to exhaust and dismantle the Axis of Resistance, thereby diminishing its operational capabilities. Secondly, there’s an emphasis on achieving the strategic paralysis of Iran’s proxy regime, rendering it ineffective in the face of Israeli actions. Thirdly, the goal is to undermine Iran's influence throughout the Middle East, effectively recalibrating the power dynamics in the region. Lastly, this approach transcends conventional warfare, placing the region into a complex grey zone characterised by a state of "no peace, no war." Such a situation poses a daunting challenge, with consequences that could reverberate well beyond Israel's immediate borders.

Iran-Israel Conflict: Iran’s Calculations to Miscalculations

Iran's sinister orchestration of the October 7 attacks last year was aimed at disrupting the region's advancement plans and altering the balance of power in the Middle East. However, it now seems that Iranian leadership may have misjudged the long-term implications of this strategy. The sudden escalation from Israel has delivered a strategic and tactical shock to Tehran, undermining its initial assessment that a prolonged conflict, characterised by balanced escalation, would ultimately weaken Israel. While this viewpoint contained a kernel of truth—Israel's economy is indeed fragile—such effects are likely to be temporary.

What began as a potential negotiation scenario on Iran's terms now appears to be tilting toward Israel gaining the upper hand in any forthcoming discussions. Iran's attempts to ignite a new conflict in West Asia have resulted in some tactical victories, managing to disturb the region's economic and strategic equilibrium. This move was intended to preserve Iranian influence and curb the rapid development of the “West Asian Quad” ambitions, which posed a significant threat to Iran's regional dominance and could potentially lead to its isolation.

Yet, Iran failed to grasp the broader implications of escalating hostilities. The aggressive strategic maneuvers by Israel have begun to shift the dynamics, contradicting previous analyses that suggested Israel would shy away from risky calculations. The ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, now appearing to be protracted yet balanced, diverges sharply from the anticipated outcomes, indicating that Iran's calculations may not align with the current realities on the ground.

Balance of Power in the Middle East

As previously outlined, four significant shifts could reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. While Israel stands to gain strategic advantages from these developments, they possess the inherent potential to fundamentally alter the balance of power in the region, potentially ushering it into a precarious state of "no peace, no war."

War of Attrition Against the Axis: The Rise of Israel and the Weakening of Iran

Israel's intensified air and ground campaigns against various terror groups, including the Houthis in Yemen, signal a transformation in strategic realities. Historically, Israel has opted for limited and sustainable operations targeting terror proxies to dismantle their tactical capabilities. However, the current approach has shifted to a more expansive air campaign aimed at the strategic eradication of these proxies. This broad attrition strategy not only undermines Israel's perennial adversary, Iran, but also places it under substantial pressure.

Iran, which once believed that strategic patience and proxy warfare would effectively encircle Israel, now finds itself at a crossroads as these tactics fail to yield the desired outcomes. The Iranian strategy appears increasingly unsustainable, leading to a looming threat of engaging in an asymmetrical war. This situation highlights the shifting power dynamics in the region, with Israel potentially solidifying its position while Iran grapples with the repercussions of its miscalculations.

Iran-Israel Conflict: “Grey” in Balance of Power

The Middle East has already experienced the complexities of Cold War 2.0 and grey zone conflicts since the end of the Cold War and the onset of the 2000s. However, the current grey zone dynamics are markedly more pronounced, suggesting that the region may oscillate between states of "no peace, no war" and periods of heightened conflict. In the immediate term, the former scenario is likely to prevail, reshaping the balance of power in favor of Israel at a strategic level. This shift will not only undermine Iran's credibility but also pave the way for Israel's resurgence reminiscent of the post-Arab-Israeli War landscape of 1967.

Such a power reconfiguration could encourage active U.S. engagement in the Middle East, as a weakened Iran and a strengthened Israel present opportunities for diplomatic and political maneuvers that benefit both Western interests and regional stability. Nevertheless, this strategic shift may also heighten security anxieties, disrupting the economic and political potential of Gulf states like the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Conversely, should the situation devolve into a "no peace, no war" scenario, security anxieties are likely to persist, albeit at more sustainable levels. In this context, Iran may find avenues to regroup and re-strengthen its proxy networks. The downside of Israel's rise and the weakening of Iranian proxies is that history has shown us that such circumstances can lead to the resurgence of these very factions. For instance, the U.S. failure to capture Osama bin Laden during the Battle of Tora Bora ultimately facilitated the Taliban's resurgence. Similarly, Israel's 1982 invasion of Lebanon, dubbed Operation Peace for Galilee, is often regarded as a strategic misstep that contributed to the emergence of Hezbollah.

This historical precedent suggests that new and existing Iranian proxies could regroup and wage an enduring proxy war against Israel. While such dynamics may disrupt peace and stability, it is unlikely that they will escalate into full-scale warfare. Iran appears to have absorbed vital strategic lessons about the prudent use of proxy forces, leading to a more cautious approach. Thus, while the potential for conflict remains, a second round of extensive warfare seems improbable, leaving the region in a state of fragmented peace.

Iran’s Options and Future

Having exhausted its strategic patience, Iran has escalated tensions by launching ballistic missile strikes against Israel, actions that are almost certain to provoke a robust retaliatory response. In this precarious situation, Iran faces two primary options.

Firstly, it can engage in a limited war against Israel. While this approach carries the risk of significant damage to an asymmetrically disadvantaged Iran, it could potentially reinvigorate its proxy networks, allowing Tehran to reassert its influence in the region.

Alternatively, Iran may opt for backchannel or quiet diplomacy to initiate serious negotiations with Israel, aiming to avert the immediate threat of direct or limited warfare. This strategy becomes increasingly appealing as Israel grapples with pressing questions about hostages, making negotiations a more favorable avenue for de-escalation.

However, the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict and the transition of the region into a “no peace war” and “no peace, no war” dynamic complicates the prospects for peace and diplomacy. In such a charged atmosphere, achieving lasting agreements will prove challenging, as both sides must endure the uncertainties and strategic dilemmas that define the current situation.